[PYTHON] [Introduction to Infectious Disease Model] World Infection Status as Seen by MACD ♬

I would like to MACD the infection situation in the world. I think it is meaningful to take a bird's-eye view of the infection situation six months after the infection explosion, ahead of Oripara one year later. 【data】 COVID-19/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series 【code】 COVID-19_Japan/MACD_world.py COVID-19_Japan/MACD_US.py

World situation

It is as follows. The upper row shows a bar graph of the number of new infections series, a blue plot of trends, a 12-day moving average, and a 26-day moving average. The lower row draws the MACD, Signal, and MACD-Signal bar graphs. From the top, you can see that the world has been increasing rapidly from around June. As a result, although the graph on the bottom shows a downward trend once in April, the bar graph touches the positive side from the beginning of May and has not become negative. This is the reality of the news that the number of new infections is the highest every day. And as you may have noticed, the peak infections in Wuhan and China are just the beginning of this graph and are small and barely visible. Therefore, draw the vertical axis as a logarithmic graph. The graph shows the first wave from February to March. You can see that there is a two-digit difference compared to the current situation.

Situation in the United States

Currently, the United States is the most infected country. The first wave of the United States came from April to May. Once, the number of new infections on a daily basis decreased to about 20,000, but it increased significantly from the middle of June and reached about 70,000 every day. From now on, if you look at the MACD below, the bar graph is touching negative, suggesting a decrease. It does not seem to decrease from the upper graph, but it may decrease in the future. The logarithmic graph is as follows. You can see that the number of detections was almost 0 in February. In March, you can see that the current order has increased by 3.5 digits.

NY situation

The first outbreak in the United States was in NY. Looking at the graph below, it seems that the number of new infections in early April has reached 10,000 and is ending. In the logarithmic graph, it is as follows. Looking at this graph, we can see that there are still a little less than 1000 new infections, and it seems that the situation is still unpredictable. In other words, if you look closely at MACD, you can see that the bar graph turned positive from mid-May and began to show an upward trend.

California situation

California has come here and crossed NY. California has maintained around 1000-2000 people from its rise around April to June. However, it suddenly started up in mid-June and has now reached the level of over 10,000 people. However, looking at the MACD here, there are signs that the bar graph turns negative and begins to show a downward trend. The logarithmic graph is as follows. It looks like it's slowly increasing from 1000 to 2000 levels. And it has reached the level of 10,000 people at once.

Florida situation

Another city is Florida. Florida is even more prominent than California, with less than 1,000 people until mid-June, but it has risen sharply and has reached the level of 12,000 at once. It looks more prominent in a logarithmic graph. In other words, it reached the level of 1,000 people rapidly in April, and then decreased slightly, but it increased sharply from the beginning of June and reached the level of 10,000 people in a little over a month. However, as with California, Florida has a negative bar graph, which is a sign of a decrease.

Status of India

I think India is one of the most growing and unfavorable countries in the world right now. As shown below, the number has risen to over 50,000, and the MACD has a positive bar graph, so it looks like it is still increasing exponentially. Looking at the logarithmic graph, it is as follows. In March, it was a three-digit pace in a month, but even now, it is scary to draw a straight line 10 times in two months.

Brasil situation

Brasil is in the same dangerous situation as India. Although the rise is small here, the infection exploded from around May, reaching 10,000 people, 30,000 people in June, and another increase to 60,000 people in July. Brasil once showed a negative bar graph, but suddenly turned positive in July. The logarithmic graph is as follows. The spread was weaker than the exponential function, but in July the last rise looks linear. Further increase in the future is in jeopardy.

Status of South Africa

South Africa is said to be dangerous these days. The situation is as follows. Like India and Brazil, it has increased rapidly recently, not as much as in both countries, but it is due to the number of new infections exceeding 12,000. However, looking at the latest MACD, it seems that the bar graph shows a minus and there is a possibility of decrease. The logarithmic graph is as follows.

Status of Russia

Russia was also one of the dangerous countries for a while. Currently it is as follows. It exceeded 10,000 in early May, but it is gradually decreasing, and now there are about 5,000 new infections every day. The bar graph also seems to have settled down to a negative level, but in July it is weak and positive. The situation is unpredictable. The logarithmic graph is as follows.

European situation

These countries are similar. There, they are lined up continuously. Roughly speaking, in these countries, the first wave has ended, but it is still insufficient, and the second wave has begun to rise here, and the number of new infections is about 1000-2000. is. France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom Turkey

Sweden situation

The rumored Sweden is: In April-June, the number was constant at around 700, but it increased in July and seems to be on a downward trend. It is unknown what is reducing it.

Israeli situation

Israel looks bigger in the second wave than in the first wave. However, the second wave seems to start to decrease after peaking at around 2000 people.

Status of Japan

It shows a curve that is similar to Israel.

Status of Australia

Australia is also Japanese.

Indonesian situation

Indonesia is an India type and the number is still increasing, and it has increased to less than 2000 people.

Iran's situation

Like Russia, it is almost endless, with the second wave occurring and more than 2,500 newly infected people every day.

Iraq situation

Iraq, like South Africa, has exploded since June and currently has more than 2,500 newly infected individuals. And although it seems to be saturated, it seems that it has started to increase.

Situation in Singapore

Singapore, which worked well around March, is now: It was almost over, but like Japan, it started to increase from the beginning of July.

Summary

・ A bird's-eye view of the rumored infection situation in each country ・ The situation in the world is spreading more and more. ・ More than 250,000 people are infected every day in the world ・ It seems that many countries have started to increase from the middle of June. ・ ** There are many 7-day cycles, but Sweden is completely closed on Saturdays and Sundays **